Sudiksha KochiUSA TODAY
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In a few weeks, all eyes will be on Milwaukee, Wisconsin as the 2024 Republican candidates hit the stage Aug. 23 for the first GOP primary debate.
Wisconsin, a key battleground state, was the site of previous debates for both the Democratic and Republican parties in the 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns. Former President Donald Trump, the GOP frontrunner, has also held many rallies there.
Along with the first GOP debate of the 2024 election cycle, the Republican National Committee will also hold the party’s nominating convention in Wisconsin next year.
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“I am so excited to bring the world into Milwaukee, not just for the Republican Party, but to help businesses and business owners to highlight a bipartisan effort to do great things for this urban community,” Ronna McDaniel, the committee’s chair, told Wisconsin Public Radio.
The debate will be hosted by Fox News, Young America's Foundation and Rumble. It will be held at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, according to a Fox News press release.
Here's a rundown of why the debate is in Wisconsin:
Wisconsin: a 'tipping point' state in 2024
Wisconsin is widely viewed as one of the most politically competitive states in the country, according to Barry Burden, director of the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He said that since the presidential election is decided by the electoral count rather than the popular vote, a shift of even a small number of votes in Wisconsin could help determine who is elected.
"Several analysts are already predicting that Wisconsin will the 'tipping point' state that decides when one of the tickets crosses the crucial threshold of 270 electoral votes," Burden said. "For these reasons the major parties and candidates are laser-focused on the Badger State."
Unlike some states such as Georgia and Minnesota which sometimes have close presidential outcomes, Wisconsin is unique for consistently having tight elections, according to Burden. He said that the margin between two frontrunners was often less than 1% in four of the six elections held between 2000 and 2020, and that only two victories from former President Barack Obama stand out as “sizable wins for one candidate.”
The state has also seen several close elections below the presidential level. For instance, Democratic Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers beat his opponent, Scott Walker, by a margin of 1.1% in 2018.Likewise, U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) defeated Democrat opponent Mandela Barnes in the 2022 midterm election by 1%.
"As the first debate of the 2024 nomination season, the Milwaukee event has the potential to alter the trajectory of the Republican contest," Burden said. "For many viewers it will be the first time they have seen lower-tier candidates such as Tim Scott and Nikki Haley, who will have an opportunity to break out of the pack with notable performance."
Typically, a primary debate will not have a determinative effect in a state, according to Kenneth Mayer,a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. For instance, he said that one couldn't point to the November 2015 debate and attribute Trump's win to that.
"There are a lot of moving parts, and it's not clear how many candidates will actually qualify or whether Trump will agree to appear," Mayer said.
Republican debate puts a spotlight on Milwaukee
Choosing Milwaukee for a presidential primary debate "helps with state party building, encourages candidates to pay attention to the state, reflects the importance of the Milwaukee suburbs to GOP prospects statewide and boosts the visibility of the primary," Mayer said.
Milwaukee has a little less than 600,000 people so the debate will bring an “enormous profile” to the city, according to Wisconsin Republican Party Chairman Brian Schimming.
“It's not just local or regional or state or national profile. It’s international profile because this debate is covered internationally,” Schimming told USA TODAY. “So we're gonna have people literally in from all over the world not just for the conduction, but for the debate. So I look forward to that, for Milwaukee sake, I think for the state party.”
Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson said that the debate will also help businesses on the ground raise money and take advantage of the opportunity to drive massive numbers of people to support local tourism hospitality. Around the time of the nominating convention, Milwaukee will have implemented a sales tax so visitors will also have to pay for the services they received in the city.
Overall, the debate gives voters a chance to be more politically engaged, Johnson said.
I think folks in the state will pay attention to the happenings of the convention, will have a better line of sight as to what the eventual nominee will say and seek to do, were he or she to be elected president of the United States," Johnson said. "Doesn't necessarily mean that they'll win Wisconsin though."
